Thursday, August 23, 2012

Typhoon Tembin Update #11 [Landfall]

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) has finally made landfall in Taitung County roughly 3 hours ago. It is now located approximately 300km south southwest of Taipei, Taiwan and is moving very near Hengchun City. Maximum sustained winds from JTWC's latest advisory are around 205kph with gusts of up to 240kph although we think those winds have decreased a bit as the system is now over land. Tembin is currently moving west southwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am today, Public Storm Warning Signal #2 from PAGASA is still in effect for Batanes Group of Islands while Signal #1 is up for Calayan and Babuyan Groups of Islands. Entire country of Taiwan is under some sort of rainfall advisory with the southern half under a typhoon warning. Please visit CWB for the latest warnings in your area (Taiwan).

Radar from CWB

Latest radar from Taiwan shows the eye of Tembin is now over land and is beginning to fill in as it loses the source of energy. Tembin made landfall along the Taitung and Pintung County at around 4:30am local time. Right now, the system is now moving very near Hengchun City and could actually move back into the open waters in a few hours. Some stations have reported seeing wind gusts of up to 200kph and rains of up to 200mm already. We are still waiting for reports in terms of damages in that area and we'll keep you updated throughout the day. For more radar images, warnings, and forecasts from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB)

IR Image from NRLMRY

Despite the landfall and hours of continuous land interaction, Tembin maintains a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast. The convective activity remains strong as well, aided by the surface friction and convergence. We have noticed that the west southwestward movement of the system occurred much earlier than forecast. This recent wobble could suggest that the Fujiwhara Effect with the approaching Typhoon Bolaven (roughly 1,000km away) could be starting right now.

Tembin will maintain its typhoon strength as it moves back into the waters later this morning. It could even intensify again as it moves away from land. As for Taiwan, heavy rains of up to 500mm are still possible today, especially in mountainous areas. Strong typhoon-force winds of up to 140kph are still possible across the southern portions of Taiwan. Even Batanes Islands could see tropical storm winds of up to 80kph today.

If the Fujiwhara Effect is indeed happening as we speak, Tembin could slow down and eventually stall southwest of Taiwan today or tomorrow. We are now confident that Tembin will eventually be influenced by Bolaven and could force the former to move northeastward. As to the degree of influence, that remains to be seen.

We'll have more updates along with our updated Forecast Track later this afternoon. Stay safe!
If you have any storm videos or images in Taiwan, please share them with us at
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 082412

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