Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Typhoon Saola (Gener) Update #14

Note: For the latest Video Update on both Saola and Damrey posted an hour ago, please click HERE

Typhoon Saola (Bagyong Gener) continues to slowly intensify as it remains east of Taiwan. The system was last located approximately 410km north northeast of Basco, Batanes; 210km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan; or about 70km southwest of Ishigakijima Island of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph; this makes Saola a Category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Saola/Gener is currently moving north northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA maintains Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes, Calayan, and Babuyan Groups of Islands. Signal #1 for Cagayan and Apayao. Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued Typhoon Warnings for many areas in the country particularly along its eastern side. Japan's JMA has also issued Storm and High Waves Warnings for Miyakojima and Ishigakijima.

For the complete list of warnings for Taiwan and Japan, please click below for the following agencies:
Taiwan CWB
Japan JMA

Radar from JMA

Latest radar out of Japan shows the eye remains just east of Taiwan. Inner bands from Saola are also affecting the Japanese Islands together with the northeastern part of Taiwan. Nearly 100mm of rain has already fallen in some places; some parts in Taiwan have actually collected more than 200mm so far. Due to the slow movement of Saola, there could be really high rainfall amounts of up to 200mm tonight and into tomorrow. Winds of up to 100kph sustained and gusts of up to 140kph are beginning to be reported in the Japanese Islands and since they are under the right-front quadrant, they could experience strong typhoon-force winds tonight and into tomorrow.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Based on the satellite, it seems the eye of Saola has disappeared back under the cloud cover although strong convective activity continues to wrap around the storm. The circulation and the enhancement of the SW Monsoon continues to bring light to moderate rains extending into Batanes Islands and as far south as Northern and Western Luzon. Areas in Batanes have recorded more than 250mm of rain today. Rains will still prevail for the next two days but should start tapering down as Saola dissipates this weekend.

Forecast Track

Typhoon Saola (Gener) is forecast to slowly move near Taiwan and the Ishigakijima Islands tonight. Due to the proximity to land, any small wobbles could send Saola making landfall so we are leaving that as a possibility. Either way, stormy conditions will persist in Taiwan and the Japanese Islands. As we have said before, Saola still has a chance to undergo rapid intensification and even the JTWC is still expecting the system to reach Category 3 intensity tomorrow; we have agreed with the intensity forecast although we expect Saola to weaken slightly as it nears the Chinese Coast. Right now, we are forecasting a landfall along the coast of Fujian Province (near the city of Fuzhou) by early Friday morning (early dawn). It will quickly weaken as it moves across China and could totally dissipate by Saturday.

Tropical Update

A brief tropical update: A weak low pressure area has been spotted well north of Guam. Invest 99W is still in the early stages although models are intent on developing this system into a Tropical Storm in the next 2 to 3 days. Meanwhile, the SW Monsoon continues to bring rains across the Philippines. The bulk of rains will be found across the Western Parts of Luzon. Metro Manila will have occasional rains although not as widespread as in the past few days. Still, some of these showers can have heavy rains embedded within them so continue checking with PAGASA and NOAH for the latest.

Finally, one reader has shared his personal video as Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan. This video can be accessed by clicking HERE. If you have any storm reports, images, or videos, please share them with us by emailing us at or leaving a comment on our YouTube page (video response).

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 080112

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