Thursday, August 2, 2012

Typhoon Damrey Update #9 [LANDFALL]

Typhoon Damrey is now about to make landfall in Eastern China. The system was last located approximately 260km north northeast of Shanghai or about 150km northeast of Yancheng. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Damrey is currently moving west northwestward at 35kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, China has now raised Red Alert for Typhoon Damrey as it nears landfall. Residents along the coast of Jiangsu should now be prepared to ride out the storm. Continue to monitor the developments here as the night progresses!

CMA Radar

Latest Radar from China now shows the eye of Damrey inching closer to the coast. Outer rain bands are now beginning to affect coastal areas along with gusty winds and rough waves. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate here in the next hour. Fortunately, Damrey is such a quick moving and small storm that we expect a very small area to be really hammered by strong winds. Furthermore, rainfall amounts should only range around 50 to100mm and typhoon winds should only last for 2 to 3 hours. Nevertheless, this is still a dangerous storm and if you are within the path, please be safe! For the latest warnings and updates from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye still fully established despite the convection waning in the past 6 hours. JTWC is currently assessing Damrey as a 75kt (140kph) typhoon although JMA is holding its intensity at around 60kt (110kph) just below typhoon. Based on satellite and microwave appearance, we are siding with JTWC analysis.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Damrey will make landfall in Jiangsu Province in about an hour. It will quickly lose typhoon strength as it tracks over land, bringing strong winds and heavy rains in its path. It will continue weakening throughout the night as it crosses into Shandong Province. It will track well south of Beijing as it weakens to a Tropical Depression tomorrow. We expect Damrey to fully dissipate as early as tomorrow afternoon. Its remnants, however, could still continue enhancing rains across Northeastern China in the next 2 days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 080212

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