Thursday, August 2, 2012

Tropical Storm Saola Update #17

Tropical Storm Saola has really weakened as it continues to move across the northeastern tip of Taiwan. Saola was last located approximately 50km east of Taipei, Taiwan; 500km north of Basco, Batanes; or about 200km west of Ishigakijim of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Saola is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Taiwan still has Typhoon Warning and JMA Storm and High Waves Warning.

CWB Radar

Even though the center of Saola has moved towards the northeastern coast, majority of the rains remain across much of Taiwan continuing to bring widespread moderate to heavy rains across many areas. Stations in the country, particularly in the Central Region have reported receiving rains of up to 600mm in the past 18 hours alone! As the rains continue for another 12 to 24 hours, there could be as much as 1500mm of rain in some places by the time this is all said and done. For more warnings and updates from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)

IR Image

Tropical Storm Saola is now looking really rugged after suffering the effects of land interaction last night. It abruptly turned left and made landfall, contrary to most forecast. This sudden change of movement can be partly attributed to the topography of Taiwan. We have seen this time and again how systems are "sucked" as they move near Taiwan. Right now, though, Saola has started to move northward into China.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Forecast tracks continue to show a landfall early tomorrow morning along the coast of Fujian Province. Despite moving over waters, we no longer expect Saola to regain Typhoon intensity. Nevertheless, areas along the coast of SE China should still expect stormy conditions tonight and into tomorrow. Those same rainfall reports coming out of Taiwan right could also shift towards China so please beware! Continue to watch the news and monitor the system for Taiwan and for China.

Next update will be tomorrow morning.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 080212

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