Tropical Depression 14W has intensified into a Tropical Storm today. Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) was last located approximately 530km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. Kai-Tak is currently moving westward at 15kph.
As of 5pm today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Quirino, Aurora, Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Cagayan inc. Babuyan & Calayan Grp. of Islands and Batanes Grp. of Islands. These areas will start to feel winds of 30 to 60kph as well as moderate rains. Rainfall amounts of up to 50mm possible tonight.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the bulk of convection from Kai-Tak is displaced slightly to the west of the circulation center. The system is situated in an area of moderate wind shear and is hindering the circulation from consolidating further. Convection from Kai-Tak or Helen is also beginning to impact parts of Eastern Luzon. Some stations across Isabela and Aurora are already reporting rains of 30 to 60mm from this morning and more is on the way.
Furthermore, inflow bands induced by the large circulation of Kai-Tak are moving across parts of Luzon enhancing showers and thunderstorms. Latest radar from Subic below shows rains moving southeastward and could impact Southern Luzon including Metro Manila in the next few hours. These rains are certainly not as heavy compared to what fell last week; however, still expect 30 to 50mm of rain tonight. For more radar images, and rainfall forecasts in your area, go to PAGASA's Project NOAH or ClimateX PH (alternative)
Radar Image from ClimateX
Our preliminary forecast is going with the latest consensus among computer models and forecast agencies. We are expecting Kai-Tak to begin turning to the northwest tonight or tomorrow. It will then track into the Luzon Strait by Wednesday, barely missing Cagayan. Conditions will get favorable in the coming days and should allow Kai-Tak to intensify into a Typhoon, perhaps as early as Wednesday morning. Eventually, Kai-Tak could make landfall across Guangdong Province, east of Hong Kong, by early Friday morning.
This is just a preliminary forecast and it could still change as more data come in. The cone of uncertainty is still encompassing Northern Luzon and Taiwan so any shifts in the track could put Kai-Tak on a possible landfall either in Luzon or Taiwan. And even if Kai-Tak doesn't make landfall, the system will still likely enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) in the next few days.
We are introducing a new Forecast Track Graphic. Very little has changed, actually, and is mainly used to update the map. We have added the forecasted intensity below the time. You can email us at philippineweather@yahoo if you have any questions or comments on our forecasts.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PHT 081312
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