Monday, August 13, 2012

Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Helen) Update #4

Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) has intensified slightly as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 450km east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. Kai-Tak is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has now issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Isabela and Cagayan. Signal #1 for Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Babuyan, Calayan, and Batanes Groups of Islands. Areas under Signal #2 will experience winds of up to 100kph beginning later today. Signal #1 will have winds of around 30 to 60kph. Widespread moderate rains should also be expected with amounts ranging from 50 to 100mm falling throughout today. Seas will be rough all along the northern and eastern seaboard of Luzon so please refrain from using small sea crafts.

For the latest radar images, as well as rainfall forecasts for your area, please visit PAGASA'S PROJECT NOAH by clicking HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the massive convection associated with Kai-Tak. The storm, however, is still suffering from shear as much of the clouds are still displaced west from the low-level center (in red X). Either way, rains from the storm have been affecting parts of Eastern and Southern Luzon. Furthermore, the inflow bands continue to enhance rainshowers and thunderstorms across Central Luzon including Manila. Areas mentioned should expect on and off rains throughout today with amounts of up to 50mm. Rains will get heavier, especially across Northern and Eastern Luzon beginning tonight.

Not much change in the forecasts and we still expect Kai-Tak to narrowly avoid making landfall in Cagayan. We still expect a slow intensification but as the shear relaxes, Kai-Tak should intensify more quickly. Computer models are still split on eventual track but for now, we're keeping our forecasts from yesterday of a track towards Guangdong Province by as early as Thursday.

We'll have more updates later today.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 081412

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