Thursday, July 26, 2012

Tropical Update

We continue to watch Invest 93W as it slowly develops east of the Philippines. Invest 94W has already moved into Taiwan and is no longer suspect for development. The SW Monsoon has also weakened with much of Luzon now experiencing drier weather.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The main story of this update is 93W which was last located approximately 700km east of Samar. We have been watching this system develop for a few days now and while it is taking a long time developing, we still think 93W will become a depression in the next two days. In fact, JTWC has upgraded the system's chances to MEDIUM. As we've noted yesterday, there is an uptick in convective activity, especially near the center. However, the convection is still largely disorganized. Currently, 93W is also enhancing showers across Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. A monsoon trough extending from 93W to near Palau is bringing showers in the region and will persist for another 2 days.

Wind shear in the area is around 15 to 20kts although an area of lighter wind shear exists north of 93W. As it continues to move northward, 93W should move into better environment. Computer models continue to develop the system and forecast it to move in the direction of the Ryukyu Islands.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 072612

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