Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Tropical Update

Vicente has dissipated over China. However, we are still monitoring its remnants as it continues to bring rains in the region. In addition, two low pressure areas east of the Philippines are also being closely monitored for development. All of these, as the SW Monsoon continues to affect much of Southeast Asia.

IR Image from NOAA


We have issued our final update on Tropical Depression Vicente earlier this morning. However, that doesn't mean the system has finished affecting the region. Areas in Yunnan Province, China and Northern Vietnam continue to report scattered rains with amounts ranging from 50 to 80mm in the past 12 hours. Further to the east, the onshore flow enhanced by the circulation of Vicente is still bringing rains across Guangxi and Guangdong Provinces. Some areas in Hainan have reported more than 120mm of rain in the past 24 hours and more rain is on the way.

Invest 94W

This low pressure area was last located approximately 200km east of Taiwan. The system has a weak circulation although convection is sparse and largely disorganized. This disturbance is not expected to develop although it could bring rains across Taiwan in the next two days. The SW Monsoon could also get enhanced bringing showers across Northern Luzon.

Invest 93W

This low pressure area was last located approximately 600km east of Mindanao. It has a distinct low-level circulation center with winds of around 30 to 40kph near the center. The system is still struggling to develop although we have observed a burst of convective activity in the past 6 hours. We still have to see, though, whether this recent uptick in activity will lead to a more consistent development. Nevertheless, we are still expecting 93W to slowly develop and become a cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days. Computer models continue to support the idea and the initial forecast track takes 93W to the north and not expected to make landfall in the Philippines.

SW Monsoon

The effects of Vicente continues to enhance the SW Monsoon across Southern China, extending all the way to the east towards Luzon. Areas in Guangdong Province such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen have reported around 80mm of rain so far today. In Western Luzon, Subic, Iba, Calayan, and parts of Ilocos Region all reported rains of 40 to 80mm as well. Widespread rains brought by the monsoon will continue for another day or so before gradually weakening. Rest of the Philippines will also see scattered rains and thunderstorms but the highest amounts will be concentrated across Northern and Central Luzon.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 072512

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