Thursday, July 5, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 96W which was moving over the South China Sea has dissipated. JTWC is no longer expecting it to develop and has stopped issuing updates on the disturbance. Nevertheless, the SW Monsoon will continue to bring occasional rains to many parts of the Philippines over the next 2 days. Rainfall amounts are not really expected to be very high although there could still be 40 to 80mm of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

Elsewhere in the Pacific, the monsoon trough located near Palau continue to enhance thunderstorm activity. However, no cyclone development is expected in this area in the next 3 days. Suppressed phases of elements important to tropical cyclone formation (ie MJO, Rossby Waves, Kelvin Waves) are forecast to move into the Western Pacific over the next week. Computer models are not showing any development either. Tropical waves can still affect eastern parts of the country from time to time though.

Due to the forecasted inactivity in the tropics in the next few days, our next update will not be until Sunday, unless we spot a potential cyclone in the region. Stay safe!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 070512

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