Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Tropical Update

The Low Pressure Area that we've been tracking all week is now moving into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea), away from Luzon. The center of Invest 96W was last located approximately 460km northwest of Manila. The system is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

Subic Radar and satellite data suggest that the low-level circulation center remains intact although much of the convective activity remains disorganized. A blow up of convection occurred last night as it was exiting Luzon prompting JTWC to issue a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert giving 96W a HIGH chance of developing into a depression in the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows rains associated with 96W continue to affect parts of Western and Northern Luzon. Areas here are reporting 40 to 80mm of rain with some spots receiving up to 120mm in the past 24 hours. Rain from 96W will continue for Zambales, Pangasinan, and the rest of Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the SW Monsoon will affect parts of Palawan, Visayas, and Central and Southern Luzon. Rains here will not be as heavy compared to yesterday although there could still be 30 o 50mm of rain falling in the next 24 to 36 hours.

As for 96W, conditions in the South China Sea remain favorable for development although there is very little computer model support for development. Nevertheless, we'll continue watching 96W and we'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 070412

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