Sunday, July 1, 2012

Tropical Update

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the JTWC two days was cancelled earlier today due to the weakening of 96W. This means the disturbance now only has a MEDIUM chance of development. However, even if the LPA does not fully develop, it will still bring rains across Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon beginning tonight and will spread tomorrow.

Invest 96W was last located roughly 480km east of Samar and is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph. Satellite data from earlier this morning revealed a distinct low-level circulation center with winds of 30 to 40kph around it. However, the system still lacks strong and organized convective activity. Conditions in the region are marginal for development and only a few computer models even develop 96W into a depression.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Again, despite the apparent weak appearance of this LPA, Visayas and Luzon could still get widespread rains in the next 2 days as 96W moves closer. Based on current movement, it could make 'landfall' in the eastern portions of Luzon by tomorrow evening. Rains will overspread much of Luzon and Eastern Visayas and could bring amounts of up to 100mm. We'll keep watching the progress of 96W and we'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 070112

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