Monday, July 2, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 96W is becoming more organized as it approaches the Bicol Region. The center of the disturbance was last located approximately 120km east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 30 to 40kph. 96W is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite analysis indicates that the disturbance is becoming more organized with improved low-level banding and increasing convective activity, particularly near the center. The satellite image above shows the rainbands from the storm affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Low-level convergence from the outer periphery of 96W is also enhancing thunderstorm formation across parts of Central and Southern Luzon (including Manila) and much of Visayas. Rains will continue in these areas throughout the night.

JTWC continues to give a MEDIUM rating for 96W. Despite the recent improvement, the proximity to land will limit organization. In fact, based on the latest movement, 96W could make landfall later tonight in either Catanduanes or in Sorsogon; that should stop the system from becoming a cyclone. Nevertheless, still expect gusty winds, rough waves, and heavy rain for parts of Bicol, Catanduanes, and Samar. 96W will continue to move northwestward bringing widespread rains along the way. We'll continue monitoring the system as it tracks across Luzon. We'll have another update tomorrow afternoon.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 070212

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