Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Tropical Storm Damrey Update #5

Tropical Storm Damrey continues to move quickly across the Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 590km east southeast of Kagoshima in Kyushu. Maximum sustained winds have slightly increased to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Damrey is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a weak eye signature forming. While convective activity is somewhat weak with warm cloud tops, recent microwave images show banding near the core is getting more organized. The wind analysis is positioned between the current JMA and JTWC warnings and is supported by numerous satellite data.

Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Damrey will continue speeding throughout the night. It is forecast to move within 200km south of Kagoshima tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday) as it tracks near Kyushu. Damrey's intensity will remain nearly the same in the next 24 hours before starting to weaken by Thursday. Current forecasts from the numerous agencies in the region remain in good agreement with the exception of JMA and China's CMA, both; both of which are forecasting a sharp turn to the north as Damrey moves into the Eastern China Sea. We have chosen to side with the larger consensus and we are expecting Damrey to make landfall north of Shanghai by Thursday evening or early Friday morning. It will then quickly dissipate as it moves across China.

We'll have our next update tomorrow.
Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 073112

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