Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Typhoon Saola (Gener) Update #11

Saola (Bagyong Gener) was able to restrengthen and has been upgraded to a Typhoon by the JTWC; JMA continues to classify Saola as a Severe Tropical Storm. Typhoon Saola/Gener was last located approximately 300km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 420km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Saola has resumed its north northwestward movement at 10kph.

At 11pm tonight, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #3 over Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #1 for Isabela, Kalinga, and Apayao. These areas will continue to see stormy conditions particularly the Philippine Islands just north of Luzon. Conditions should start to improve tomorrow night although the region should still expect occasional light to moderate rains.

CWB Radar

Latest radar from Taiwan shows the bands of heavy rains moving from the east. Rains are still not as widespread as the bulk of the convection remains to the east. However, these rain showers can bring as much as 100mm in a matter of hours. Some areas in Northeastern Taiwan are already reporting nearly 200mm of rain and more is on the way. Continue to monitor the news for the latest in these areas. In response, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has already issued Land and Sea Typhoon Warnings in many areas. For the latest updates and radar images, please click HERE (CWB Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the ragged eye of Saola (Gener) continuing to develop. More convective bands are starting to wrap around the center although activity is still lacking particularly on the northwestern side of the storm. Saola has been struggling to really develop quickly due to the presence of multiple vortices along the storm's circulation. These smaller vortices are somewhat robbing Saola of energy and moisture. Right now, we highlighted an area southwest of Taiwan that is showing strong convective activity. This could  highlight the presence of another vortex and will be watched accordingly.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been no change with the forecast tracks. We are still expecting Saola to slowly intensify tonight and into tomorrow. It will track close to the Ishigakijima Islands of Japan tomorrow evening as either a Category 1 or 2 typhoon. Saola will then move very near the northeastern tip of Taiwan by Thursday morning bringin widespread heavy rains and damaging winds in the region. Due to the continued favorable conditions in the region, the possibility remains that Saola will undergo a brief period of Rapid Intensification which could help the typhoon attain Category 3 strength. But by Thursday evening, Saola should start weakening slowly as it begins to interact with the Chinese coast. It is forecast to eventually make landfall by Friday morning in Fujian Province as a strong Category 2 typhoon. Saola will then rapidly weaken as it moves across China.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 073112

No comments:

Post a Comment