Tropical Depression 92W (Ferdie) Update #1

Invest 92W has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by JMA and PAGASA (the latter assigning the local name "Bagyong Ferdie"). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, on the other hand, has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert and also expects 92W to become a depression in the next 12 to 24 hours. TD 92W (Ferdie) was last located approximately 100km east southeast of Sta. Ana, Cagayan or about 150km east of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 92W is currently moving west northwest at 15kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Group of Island, Babuyan Group of Island, Batanes Group of Island, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Mt. Province. These areas will experience widespread rains and breezy conditions tonight and into tomorrow.
Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the exposed low-level circulation center of 92W. Moderate northerly wind shear is displacing the convection to the southwest. However, shear is forecast to weaken in the next 12 to 24hours which should allow the system to develop further. As of right now, the combined effects of 92W, convergence flow to its center, and the strengthening SW Monsoon is bringing widespread rains across much of Luzon and Visayas. Many areas here, particularly in Western and Northern Luzon, have already recorded 50 to 80mm of rain. As the rains continue tonight and into tomorrow, there could be another 50 to 100mm of rain elevating the chances of flash floods and landslides.

TD 92W (Ferdie) will continue to slowly move into the Luzon Strait. The system is forecast to take nearly the same path as Dindo which moved through the area nearly a month ago. 92W/Ferdie will be slow to intensify in the next 24 hours but should have a faster pace of development once it moves into the South China Sea by as early as Sunday morning. Medium-range forecasts take 92W/Ferdie towards Southern China by Tuesday next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 072012