Tropical Update

Invest 92W remains largely disorganized as it slowly drifts across the Philippine Sea. The low pressure area was last located approximately 440km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. The system is currently moving to the west northwest at 10kph. JTWC is keeping the MEDIUM rating for 92W while JMA has already begun to classify this disturbance as a minor tropical depression.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the clouds associated with 92W remain fragmented and weak. Microwave data suggest weak convective bands trying to wrap around the center. Furthermore, satellite wind analysis hints at an elongated low-level center with winds of 25 to 35kph. Converging clouds is enhancing southwesterly flow bringing scattered rains for Palawan, Southern Luzon, and Visayas. Further to the north, convergence is also helping rains to develop in many parts of Luzon.

Computer models continue to show development within 2 days. 92W is currently in an area of low to moderate wind shear (10-20kts) and warm sea surface temperatures, favorable for development. However, due to the apparent size of the overall circulation, 92W seems to having a hard time consolidating and pulling all that energy together. Nevertheless, still expect a possible storm forming out of this LPA in the next few days.

As for the track, 92W should continue moving to the northeast, possibly clipping NE Luzon by as early as Saturday. Then, it should continue northward towards Luzon Strait as a possible Tropical Depression. Models are hinting that 92W could stall and develop further and that is something that needs to be watched as this system forms.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 071912