Saturday, July 21, 2012

TD 09W (Ferdie) Update #3 (w/ Video)

Note: This is our Video Update containing analysis and forecast on TD 09W (Ferdie) as well as on the SW Monsoon affecting the Philippines. Winds mentioned here are from JMA, winds on our text update are from JTWC.

Tropical Depression 09W (Bagyong Ferdie) continues to move away from Luzon and could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in a couple of hours. The system was last located approximately 370km northwest of Laoag City or about 450km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds remain at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 09W is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, Hong Kong Observatory has issued Standby Signal No. 1. The agency is encouraging residents to monitor the news and the HKO website for the latest on TD 09W. Also PAGASA continues to issue Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Abra.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Northeasterly wind shear continues to hamper 09W's development. However, last few frames from satellite show new towering cloud tops, forming very near the location of the center; these new towers could suggest a much better organization and consolidation within 09W's structure. Current convective activity is not affecting Hong Kong or Southern China although the enhanced SW Monsoon continues to bring widespread light to moderate rains across Central and Southern Luzon, Palawan, and Visayas. Many areas in Luzon, including Manila, have already recorded 100mm of rain (or more) in the past 24 hours and more could be on the way tonight. Visayas will have lesser amounts and Mindanao will have less frequent rains. Furthermore, as 09W moves away from the Philippines, we expect the SW Monsoon to gradually weaken as well leading to drier weather in the next few days.

Tropical Depression 09W (Bagyong Ferdie) is forecast to continue moving in a west to west northwestward direction. It will pass within 300km south of Hong Kong tomorrow and could bring scattered light rains, breezy conditions, and rough surf across the city-state and also along the southern coast of China.Computer models are on a tight consensus and forecasting agencies agree pretty much on the track. TD 09W should strengthen slowly tonight, becoming a Tropical Storm as early as tomorrow morning. Weaker wind shear and warm waters in the South China Sea should fuel continued intensification as the system moves westward.  TD 09W is forecast to make landfall along the Leizhou Peninsula in the Guangzhou Province in Southern China by as early as Monday evening. It will then cross the Gulf of Tonkin maintaining the strong Tropical Storm-intensity of around 95kph sustained. TD 09W is forecast to make landfall on the northeastern part of Vietnam (east of Hanoi) by as early as Wednesday afternoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 072112

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