Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Tropical Update

A Tropical Cyclone development is possible in the next 24 hours east of the Philippines. JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 95W; take note that the Japan Meteorological Agency is already classifying this disturbance as a Tropical Depression. PAGASA has yet to follow as well although it is possible they upgrade this to a depression in the next 12 to 24 hours. If they do, they will assign the local name 'Bagyong Dindo' for the storm.

Invest 95W (TD) was last located approximately 750km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are around 30 to 40kph. It is currently moving northwestward at 20kph. Recent satellite images depict multiple convective bands and also suggest multiple vortices. 95W is currently situated in an area of weak wind shear and with good outflow. Sea surface temperatures are also conducive for cyclone development.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Computer models agree on a general northwestward movement. However, most of the models are not really expecting a strong storm out of 95W. As it moves across the Philippine Sea, it should still intensify into a Tropical Storm. Most forecast tracks bring 95W into either a landfall over extreme NE Luzon or into Taiwan. Expect rains from the disturbance to begin affecting Southern Luzon and Samar Island tomorrow.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 062612

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