Monday, June 25, 2012

Tropical Update

A tropical cyclone development is possible within the next 2 days as a potential depression continues to slowly consolidate in the Philippine Sea. Invest 95W was last located approximately 480km north northwest of Palau or about 910km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. JTWC is now rating the system as MEDIUM and JMA has actually gone ahead and begun to classify 95W a Tropical Depression and is expecting it to become a Tropical Storm in the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

Satellite images reveal a broad circulation with scattered convective activity. A satellite pass earlier this morning suggest a closed circulation with winds of 25 to 40kph. Conditions in the area are very favorable for development with weak wind shear, good outflow, and high sea surface temperatures. Computer models continue to show a possible tropical storm or a depression moving into Northern Luzon by Thursday.

We'll continue watching this system and will have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 062512

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