Saturday, June 23, 2012

Tropical Update

No cyclones currently exist in the Western Pacific. However, we are watching two low pressure areas east of the Philippines. Invest 94W is outside the PAR and has little chances of developing. Satellite data suggest an elongated circulation with light to moderate wind shear (10 to 15kt). Computer models, however, are not developing this system. Another LPA is located much closer to the country. Invest 93W is located around 200 to 300km east of Mindanao. It, too, has very little chances of developing with no clear circulation and is located in an area of high wind shear. However, 93W is enhancing shower activity across Eastern Mindanao. Light rainfall amounts of 20 to 40mm are possible here.

IR Image from NOAA

Meanwhile, out in the Philippine Sea, we are watching a broad area of disturbance that could develop into a cyclone by next week. It is not rated as Invest as of yet, however, there is reason to believe that chances of development here could increase. The area between Palau and South of Guam currently has disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level low moving through the Marianas is suppressing outflow at the moment. However, as it moves westward, outflow could be better, and combined with weak wind shear and high sea surface temperatures, the environment will become conducive for development. Some computer models are hinting at a possible cyclone coming from this area so we do have to continue monitoring. For now, the weather in the Philippines should be mainly quiet especially in Luzon where the monsoon activity is on a decline. Rest of the country should also expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures ranging from mid 20s at night to mid to upper 30s during the day. Isolated thunderstorms are also likely especially during the afternoon.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 062312

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