Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Dindo) Update #1

The depression that we have been tracking for two days have now been upgraded to a Tropical Storm. TS Doksuri with a local name of "Bagyong Dindo" assigned by PAGASA, was last located approximately 400km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes and is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite images continue to depict improved organization of Doksuri. A satellite pass last night revealed a well defined circulation with banding wrapping from the south and east. Wind shear has increased a little bit but is still manageable for development. Aided by good outflow and warm seas, we expect Doksuri to continue strengthening but is unlikely to become a typhoon.

Most computer models agree on a track near the extreme NE Luzon (around Cagayan). Doksuri will approach the said area by around Thursday afternoon or night. But even before that, expect rains to affect Bicol Region and parts of Eastern Luzon today and tomorrow. Seas will be rough along the eastern seaboard as well so fishing and sea travel is strongly discouraged. Medium and long-range forecasts bring the storm across Luzon Strait and into South China Sea. Beyond that, models begin to diverge although consensus track suggest a movement near Hong Kong by Saturday morning. We'll have more info later at our afternoon update.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 062712

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