Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Dindo) Update #2

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Local name 'Bagyong Dindo') was last located approximately 500km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 600km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Doksuri is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11am today, Signal #2 has been raised by PAGASA for Cagayan and Isabela Provinces. Signal #1, meanwhile, is up for Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Mt.Province, Aurora, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, and Quirino. For the upcoming 5pm update from PAGASA (which will have the latest Signal Warnings), please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite images depict a fully exposed low-level circulation center, highlighted in the above image. An increase in wind shear in the past 12 hours has led to the 'decoupling' of the low-level center with the mid-level circulation and all the convection associated with it. Therefore, the bright clouds from Doksuri are all displaced to the south and southwest. Since the rainclouds are really close to Luzon despite the center being more than 500km away, expect light rains to begin affecting parts of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon later tonight; that's why the Signal Warnings have been put up by PAGASA. Aside from the rains, wave heights will increase as well and rough surf will be experienced all across the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Based on the latest data, as well as observing the movement of Doksuri, we think it will pass within 100km of Sta. Ana, Cagayan tomorrow morning (Thursday). There is a chance it will strengthen tonight, it all depends on the shear in the atmosphere; however, we are not expecting a typhoon out of it. Doksuri, will bring widespread rains tomorrow across Northern and Central Luzon with amounts of up to 100 to 150mm in some areas. Doksuri will cross Luzon Strait affecting the islands there, and then move into the South China Sea. We expect the storm to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday night or Saturday morning. Computer models continue to track Doksuri towards Hong Kong by Saturday although it remains to be seen how strong the system will be by that time. For now, we're holding it as a Tropical Storm when it makes landfall in China.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 062712

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