Tuesday, May 22, 2012

TS Sanvu Update #4

Tropical Storm Sanvu continues to strengthen as it moves farther away from the Marianas Islands. The center of the storm was last located approximately 420km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph gusting to 100kph. TS Sanvu is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

All Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches in the Marianas have been dropped by the NWS.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Sanvu was able to consolidate nicely overnight, taking advantage of the favorable conditions in the area. The storm has a good poleward outflow and robust convective activity. However, it is pretty apparent that the southwestern periphery of the storm is lacking any activity which could be due to subsidence brought by a nearby Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. Nevertheless, the weak wind shear and improving outflow should continue aiding Sanvu in its intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.

Because of the recent developments, chances of Sanvu becoming a typhoon is increasing. Most computer models have also upped the peak intensity on their forecasts. The track still takes Sanvu to the north beginning Thursday, passing very close to Iwo To, Japan by Friday morning as a typhoon with possible winds of 150 to 170kph. Extra-tropical transition is forecast to begin by Saturday when it starts to interact with the westerlies.

We'll have our next update later this afternoon.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 052312

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