Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Sanvu Update #3

Tropical Storm Sanvu continues to consolidate as it moves away from the Marianas Islands. The center of circulation was last located approximately 220km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kph gusting to 95kph. TS Sanvu is moving northwestward at 20kph.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saipan and the rest of the Northern Marianas Islands (all warnings issued by the NWS). Around 30 to 50mm of rain has fallen across Andersen Base and Guam Airport in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, winds continue to gusts to up to 65kph in some places. Rough conditions like these will likely persist for the next 12 hours. Coastal waters will also continue to be rough for another day or so. Radar image from Guam can be reached HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

The large circulation of Sanvu is very evident on the satellite, as seen above. This is likely a factor as to why the system hasn't really been able to steadily intensify in the past 6 hours. Much of the convective activity remains fragmented and a recent microwave image shows banding remains weak. Despite that, favorable conditions are forecast to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours which should aid Sanvu with its intensification.

While the JTWC is still expecting a typhoon-intensity in the next 3 days, most computer models have backed down on that scenario. Furthermore, Sanvu is forecast o start moving into an area of stronger wind shear and cooler oceans by Thursday. Our forecast peak intensity is around 90 to 100kph, just below the typhoon threshold.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast track takes Sanvu northwestward and then a turn to the north as an approaching trough picks the system up. Sanvu is forecast to pass within 200km of Iwo To, Japan by Friday morning. During that timeframe, Sanvu is forecast to start transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it begins to interact with the baroclinic zone in the mid-latitude regions. Our track is slightly west of JTWC and closely resembles that of JMA's forecast track.

We'll have our next update tomorrow morning (PH Time).
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 052212

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