Wednesday, May 23, 2012

TS Sanvu Update #5

Tropical Storm Sanvu continues to intensify as it slowly moves towards Iwo To. It is nearing typhoon intensity now with maximum sustained winds of around 100kph gusting to 130kph. TS Sanvu is moving northwestward at 20kph. Based on satellite data, the center of the storm is located approximately 880km south of Iwo To, Japan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The storm continues to consolidate and exhibit good poleward outflow. Do note, however, that the southwestern periphery remains nearly void of convective activity. Nevertheless, banding continues to improve on the northern and eastern sides and the storm is slowly taking the look of a typhoon. While the eye is still not visible on the satellite, a recent microwave image (seen below) shows the banding near the center. The image shows the developing eyewall with the southwestern side still "open" as of the moment.

MWI from the TRMM-TMI Satellite (NRLMRY)

TS Sanvu is expected to remain in favorable regions for another 24 hours which could allow it to strengthen further and attain typhoon status, perhaps as early as tomorrow morning. Our forecast track remains generally the same with a slight shift to the west. The storm still hasn't started interacting with an approaching trough from the west. This trough is expected to pick up the system and influence it to turn to the north and eventually northeastward. Right now, we expect Sanvu to continue its present northwestward movement until tomorrow, intensifying along the way. It will then start turning to the northeast by Friday. It will make its closest approach to Iwo To and the surrounding islands by late Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak Category 1 typhoon with winds of around 130 to 160kph.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Sanvu is forecast to start extra-tropical transition by Saturday and should become non-tropical by Sunday.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 052312

No comments:

Post a Comment