Thursday, May 31, 2012

Tropical Depression 04W (Ambo) Update #1

Invest 95W has intensified and has been upgraded into a Tropical Depression by JMA, JTWC, PAGASA, and several other agencies. Since it is inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA has given it a local name of "Ambo". TD 04W (Ambo) was last located approximately 250km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are around 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 04W is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 over Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Depression 04W continues to consolidate nicely, taking advantage of favorable conditions around the Philippine Sea. Right now, much of the rain is staying off-shore. However, do expect 04W (Ambo) to bring gusty winds as well as rough seas over Bicol Region and Catanduanes Provinces. Southwesterly inflow enhanced by the depression could bring widespread rain showers over Visayas and Southern Luzon. These showers could bring a quick 30 to 50mm which could bring flooding in many areas--we saw this yesterday around Metro Manila.

The forecast for TD 04W takes it AWAY from Luzon. The STR is forecast to weaken allowing TD 04W to recurve to the northeast. Before that, however, high SSTS and favorable conditions around the Philippine Sea could allow TD 04W to undergo rapid intensification in the next 2 days. It will move 200km east of Luzon bringing scattered showers in the region but nothing too severe. TD 04W is forecast to start recurving by Sunday morning. As of right now, model forecasts are not showing a landfall anywhere in Japan, however they are taking it very near the Tokyo Region by the latter part of next week.

We'll have more updates and forecast later this afternoon.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 060112

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