Friday, June 1, 2012

Tropical Storm Mawar (Ambo) Update #2

TD 04W has been upgraded into a Tropical Storm and earned the international name "Mawar" (remember that "Ambo" is given by PAGASA as a local name in the Philippines). Tropical Storm Mawar (Bagyong Ambo) was last located, based on satellite, approximately 210km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph gusting to 85kph. TS Mawar is currently moving northwestward at 20kph although recent images indicate that the storm is moving more to the north northwest.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The system continues to develop nicely as it moves along the Philippine Sea. Right now, outer rain bands from the storm are affecting parts of the Bicol Region, particularly Catanduanes Province.Unfortunately, PAGASA has not released any radar image yet; despite Catanduanes being the site of a newly opened Doppler Radar Station. Nevertheless, we can still approximate the rain rates via satellite data which show that the outer bands could bring anywhere between 5 and 10mm of rain per hour (image not included here). Eventually, those rains will spread into Southern and Central Luzon affecting Laguna, Quezon, Polilio Island, and even NCR. There could be as much as 50 to 100mm of rain in the next 24 hours along the areas mentioned.

As the storm moves northwestward, excellent outflow, low wind shear, and high SSTs should help Mawar gain significant strength over the next 2 days. It could become a typhoon by as early as Sunday morning, depending on the rate of intensification. As for the track, current data suggests that the storm has very little chance of making landfall anywhere in the Philippines. However, it will still move east of Luzon and be close enough to bring widespread rains in the region. TS Mawar will start to recurve to the northeast later tomorrow (Saturday) as it rounds the subtropical ridge.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There is strong consensus among the forecast models for days 1 to 4. However, there are still some uncertainties as to how far north will Mawar go. The consensus brings Mawar around 300km southeast of Okinawa by Monday and into Tuesday. It is forecast to pass near Minami islands as a possible Category 2 Typhoon. Some outliers bring Mawar as close as 100km to Okinawa although right now, our forecast sticks with the former scenario. Long-range outlook brings Mawar near the Tokyo Region by the latter part of next week as a transitioning tropical cyclone (do note that these long-range forecasts are of low probability).

For the official Public Storm Warning Signal, you can go to PAGASA's official site which will have an update at 5pm today (Philippine Time). Click HERE

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 060112

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