Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Tropical Update

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center due to the HIGH chance of cyclone development for Invest 95W. The low pressure area was last located approximately 450km east northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar. It is currently moving west northwestward at around 10kph. Based on an ASCAT pass earlier this morning, winds near the center are around 20 to 35kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 95W has gotten more organized since yesterday. The system continues to have good convective activity with banding starting to take shape as seen on a microwave image. Wind shear remains low to moderate and with high sea surface temperatures around the Philippine Sea, the chances of 95W developing further is high. Since it is inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA will give it a local name of "Ambo" once it becomes a Tropical Depression.

Computer models continue to show a tropical storm forming within 48 hours. Furthermore, most model tracks take 95W away from Luzon and steer it to the northeast towards Japan. Nevertheless, we are still expecting scattered showers to affect parts of Visayas and Luzon as the system enhances the SW Monsoon.

We'll have more updates tomorrow unless it is upgraded to a depression later this afternoon, in which case we'll have an update posted right away.
Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 053112

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