Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Tropical Update

High Pressure continues to dominate much of the Philippines today, promoting clear skies and warm temperatures. However, a developing tropical disturbance has been spotted east of Mindanao today. Invest 97W, which is just south of Palau, currently has a LOW chance for development but could still impact the country later this week. Other stories we have is the front moving across Eastern Asia and the thunderstorms in SE Asia.

IR Image from NOAA

Image above shows mainly clear skies for the Philippines with the exception of isolated thunderstorms. Also highlighted is the latest location of Invest 97W. This LPA is approximately 170km south southeast of Koror. As mentioned above, this system still has a LOW chance for development as rated by JTWC. 97W actually looked a whole lot better early this morning but soon lost much of its convection due to dry air (being near the High Pressure Ridge). Furthermore, latest computer models are not showing any development whatsoever for 97W. We'll still continue keeping an eye on this system though as conditions remain somewhat favorable in that region.

Elsewhere in Asia, a cold front is bringing rain and thunderstorms across Southeastern China, Taiwan, and parts of Japan. Right now, the low is tracking across Kyushu and Shikoku Islands. So far today, there have been reports of between 50 and 90mm of heavy rain. Same numbers could fall across Western Japan tonight and into tomorrow. Nearer the equator, the ITCZ continues to enhance thunderstorm development across Borneo, Malay Peninsula, and the rest of Southeast Asia. As much as 100mm of rain has been reported in parts of Malaysia today. Those rains could continue for another day or so as the overall pattern remains in place.

Philippines 3-Day Forecast

Forecast Graphic (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Clear conditions and warm temperatures will continue to prevail for the next few days for much of the country. Some chances of rain though for Northern Luzon as the front moves on by tomorrow. Aside from that, expect quiet weather for the next 2 days. Invest 97W could potentially impact some parts of the country by the weekend but right now, we're leaning more towards a non-developing system which would lead to lesser rains for Mindanao and Eastern Visayas. HOWEVER, if it does develop in the coming days, expect those forecasts to quickly change. Stay tuned right here for the latest updates on 97W.

Our next 3-day update will be on Saturday, April 28. That will also be our last 3-Day update for the time being as we try to focus and give way to the "real start" of the Tropical Season here in the Western Pacific.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 042512

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