Saturday, April 28, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 97W has started to blossom again this afternoon as it moves westward towards Mindanao. A batch of thunderstorms is currently affecting Taiwan as well as extreme Northern Luzon. Rest of the Philippines is having quiet and hot weather.

IR Image from NOAA

The image above shows Invest 97W which is now approximately 550km east southeast of Davao City. Fortunately, it hasn't gotten its act together in the past 2 days. However, we continue to see convection blossoming near the weak low-level center. As 97W continues to move westward, it could start affecting Eastern and Southern Mindanao tomorrow at the earliest.

Another region seeing some rains is Northern Luzon. A developing low is causing rains and thunderstorms across Batanes Islands and parts of Region 1. Further north, numerous places in Taiwan are also recording between 40 and 80mm of rain for today. Rains here will slowly move towards the northeast although occasional thunderstorms could still form and affect Luzon tonight and into tomorrow.

Forecast Graphic (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Rains to the north of the island should stay for another 6 to 12 hours. Stray thunderstorms could bring a brief shower with localized downpours tonight and into tomorrow and could go as far south as Central Luzon. Aside from these thunderstorms, no big rain-maker in the forecast. Generally, weather will remain quiet and warm with temperatures again reaching into upper 30s by day.


Quiet weather also being experienced in the region today except for some thunderstorm cells developing in the afternoon. Expect similar weather for the next 2 days. Computer models are showing rain showers returning by early next week in response to the arrival of 97W. Low confidence for this forecast so for right now, we've only put 50% for Tuesday for Cebu City. If it pans out, we're looking at around 20 to 50mm of rain by the middle of next week.


We're continuing to watch Invest 97W as it moves nearer the region. Rains could arrive as early as tomorrow afternoon for Mati City and the rest of Southern and Eastern Mindanao. Then, cities such as Davao and General Santos City should expect widespread thunderstorms by Monday. Rains are forecast to overspread the region bringing amounts of anywhere between 20 to 80mm by Wednesday.

While Invest 97W has a very low chance of developing into a cyclone, conditions do remain marginally favorable. This is the FINAL 3-Day forecast for quite sometime as we will now switch to tropical cyclone mode in anticipation of the beginning of the "real" TC season in the Pacific. We will continue to release brief updates every 3 days or so about systems that we are monitoring in the region; the specific forecast for cities, however, will cease temporarily.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 042812

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