Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Tropical Update

The Tropics continue to look rainy and wet especially across the Philippines where a Low Pressure system continues to dump heavy rainfall in some parts. Further to the east, another weak LPA has been spotted. This one has low chance of developing into a cyclone this weekend.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Meanwhile, in Eastern Asia, a weak front is bringing scattered showers across the Ryukyu Islands. It has brought light amounts of rainfall in parts of Eastern China yesterday. For now, clear weather should dominate much of the region. Rain will return by Thursday and will spread into Korea and Japan.

LPA 96W continues to skirt the Eastern Philippines and has brought more than 200mm of rain in some places. Right now, the heaviest of rains are situated across Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Rain will continue to fall here for the next 24 hours and then move slowly westward affecting Southern and Central Luzon, as well as Central and Eastern Visayas. Expect another 100mm of rain to fall with some isolated areas possibly getting 200mm or more! Fortunately, the LPA currently has a low chance for development although the continuous rains still bring the high possibility of flooding and land slides in many areas in the Philippines.

Southeast of Palau, another weak low pressure has been spotted. A recent ASCAT image shows a clear low level circulation with winds of 10 to 20kph. While this LPA (Invest 95W) has a low chance, some computer models hint that it could develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend. Nothing to be alarmed about just yet but the possibility is there.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!


Much of the region is clear at the moment. Rain is concentrated mainly in the Bicol Region. Rains there have ranged from 50 to 100mm over the past 24 hours. Wet weather will continue for the southern half before slowly moving northward. High chances of rain remain for Southern and Central Luzon tomorrow. Clearing weather is expected by the end of the week. Some rains could develop though for Northern Luzon by Friday as a cold front drops down into the region.


Huge amounts of rain has fallen across Eastern Visayas, particularly in Samar where some places have reported more than 250mm of rain. The heaviest of rains will shift northward into Luzon so lighter rains is forecast for tomorrow. Nevertheless, another 100mm of rain could fall tomorrow. Rains could still linger into Thursday. After that, the forecast depends on the movement and development of 95W in the Pacific, for now, we've kept 50% chance of rain for Cebu.


Warm and clear weather dominating the region. Northern and western areas could still get scattered showers from LPA 96W, especially tomorrow. Rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy skies with chances for isolated thunderstorms. Again, the forecast here will depend on 95W and where it could end up by the end of the week. There could be some rains by Friday as the disturbance is forecast to move through so we've put 60% chance for Davao.

Please keep on stopping by for the latest information on LPA 95W and 96W. Stay safe!
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 032012

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