Saturday, March 17, 2012

Tropical Update

Another busy day with numerous places experiencing interesting weather one way or another. Starting with Eastern Asia, a frontal boundary is producing showers from Eastern China all the way into Honshu. Shear line near Guam is producing scattered showers as well as high surf. In the Philippines, a weak circulation east of Mindanao is bringing widespread light to moderate rains.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nearly 50mm have fallen across Central Honshu today brought by the passage of a weak frontal boundary. Northern part of the country, across Tohoku and Hokkaido, these rains will change into light snow tonight and into tomorrow. Further south, we are also seeing rains develop across Ryukyu Islands and Eastern China (in and around Shanghai). Northern Taiwan is also seeing some isolated thunderstorms. Most of the precipitation here will be light and should taper off tomorrow. However, colder air will seep behind the front and bring temperatures down across Central and Northern China, as well as Korea, for the next 3 days. Temperatures will rebound by the middle part of next week.

Across the Tropics, we are seeing the usual afternoon thunderstorms, particularly across South East Asia. A shear line, meanwhile, is bringing thunderstorms as well as high surf around Marianas Islands. Clearer weather is forecast here in the coming days as high pressure builds in. The bigger story today is the circulation south of Palau that is bringing moderate rain there as well rains into Mindanao.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!


Mostly dry weather here with only isolated thunderstorms to worry about. The rain in the southern half of the country is not forecast to arrive until Tuesday. Obviously, Southern Luzon will be affected first as the batch of showers slowly move northward. Until then, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures rising in the 30s.


Light rain already being reported across Central and Eastern Visayas today. Rains will continue for the next 2 days which could drop as much as 100mm of rain by the time this is all said and done. Expect gradual clearing by Tuesday.


The weak circulation east of Mindanao continues to move westward and is already affecting much of Mindanao (as well as parts of Visayas). We are expecting as much as 50mm of rain to fall in the next 24 hours, especially along the Eastern and Northern portions of the island. Rains will continue for another day or so before tapering off by Monday. The amount and duration of the rain will depend mostly on the movement of the circulation near Palau.

While this disturbance has a low chance of developing into a storm, it could still bring heavy rains across the Philippines in the next few days. We'll have another update by Tuesday, March 20.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 031712

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