Friday, March 23, 2012

Tropical Update

Rains are finally slowly ending across the Philippines as Invest 96W continues to move away from the country. In East Asia, however, widespread light to moderate rains are being felt due to an extra-tropical low moving across Japan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Low pressure moving across Northern Japan is bringing widespread rains across much of East Asia. It has already brought 50 to 70mm of rain across parts of South Korea and we expect same amounts to be observed across Japan. A line of thunderstorms will be moving through Ryukyu Islands tonight as the low continues to move to the northeast. Clearer weather is expected by tomorrow followed by colder air as the exiting low pressure ushers in NW-erly winds.

Invest 96W is now moving across the South China Sea, west of Palawan. JTWC continues to give the system "LOW" chance for development. The models, however, have considerably backed down from showing a tropical cyclone forming in this region. With the somewhat favorable conditions of the South China Sea, we still have to watch this system for possible development.

Invest 95W in the Pacific remains and weak and disorganized. It is now moving into Palau/Yap bringing widespread rains and thunderstorms over to those islands. It is not expected to develop at the moment although the rains could eventually affect Eastern Visayas and Mindanao by Monday.




Some thunderstorms being observed across Northern and Central Luzon. The approaching front and the overall instability is causing these showers to form, as forecast. Light rains and thunderstorms will continue affecting Northern Luzon and could extend into Southern Luzon as well. Amounts should generally be light although there's possibility of landslides and flooding especially in mountainous areas.


Afternoon thunderstorms popping up across the region today. Clearer weather expected for the next two days. Next batch of widespread rains is forecast to arrive by early Monday starting with Eastern Visayas. Rains will then overspread the region by early next week.


Light rains and thunderstorms being observed across Mindanao as well although mainly situated across the Northern and Western sections. Rains will continue for tomorrow before becoming more isolated by Sunday. The rains associated with Invest 95W is not expected to significantly affect Mindanao although there could still be some showers spilling southward so have left 40% by Monday.

Next update on Monday, March 26.
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 032312

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