Monday, February 13, 2012

Tropical Update

We are seeing unsettled weather for some parts of the region today. A stationary front is bringing scattered showers across Japan. Remnants of LPA 92W and wind convergence bringing rains across Luzon and another low pressure area moving through the Western Pacific.

IR Image from NRLMRY

First we are watching some light rain showers across parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Southern Honshu. This precipitation is associated with a developing stationary front over Japan. Higher elevations and some areas along Western Honshu are also getting some snow. As this front moves through the country over the next few days, we'll see temperatures rise a little bit, especially those along the eastern areas (eg Tokyo). Behind this front will be colder temperatures along with chances of snow for Western Honshu.

Meanwhile, down in the tropics, we have two main batches of precipitation--one over Luzon, and the other over the Western Pacific Ocean. The rains across parts of Luzon are what's left of the low pressure area 92W that moved through Visayas two days ago. 48-hour rainfall total across the Philippine range from 100 to 250mm with the heaviest rainfall being reported over Eastern Visayas (Samar and Leyte), and also in Northern Mindanao. Unfortunately, the widespread rains over the Western Pacific will also move through the region beginning tomorrow bringing yet another round of moderate rainfall.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL


We continue to see scattered light rains over parts of Luzon today, particularly in Central and Eastern Luzon. Amounts have been generally light though but continuous rainfall could still trigger minor flooding and a chance of landslides in mountainous regions. Rain should begin to taper off tomorrow. Temperatures will remain nearly steady due to the cloud cover. Next chance of rain will come on Wednesday and Thursday as another low pressure area is forecast to affect Southern and Central Luzon.


Clearing weather today as much of the rain has tapered off, or moved north. We are still seeing some scattered thunderstorms forming across parts of  Siquijor, Negros, and Cebu Islands. The rains should not last very long although depending on the intensity, there is a slight chance for flooding and landslides. Tomorrow should be cloudy although rain-free for the first half. Some light rains could push through tomorrow night for Eastern Visayas. We are watching a developing Low Pressure Area roughly 700km east of Visayas. Computer models vary on timing although there is high confidence for widespread light to moderate rain affecting much of the region by Wednesday. Initial forecasts would put rainfall amounts between 50 and 150mm. Rains should continue through Thursday before beginning to die down by Friday. As it stands right now, there is a low chance for cyclone development for this system although the potential for heavy rain in some parts DOES exist.


Some light to moderate rains forming over Central and Western Mindanao as seen from satellite imagery. These rains could drop as much as 50mm of rain so do watch out for the possibility of flooding and landslides. We expect generally clear weather for tomorrow although rains could make their way to Northern Mindanao in the afternoon and evening hours. A more widespread batch of precipitation is forecast to arrive by Wednesday. The focal point for these rains will be the Visayas region although these rains could still bring as much as 150mm of rain, especially over Northern Mindanao.

We'll have our next update by Thursday, February 16. In case the low pressure near Palau exhibits significant development, we may have to put up an update so please check back often.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 021312

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