Friday, February 10, 2012

Tropical Update

We are looking at a long line of rain showers draped across the Western Pacific that will likely keep Southern Philippines wet for the next few days. Aside from this disturbance, much of the region will see typical February weather.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Just as we have forecast 3 days ago, light to moderate rains are now moving into Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. A weak low pressure area (Invest 92W) and the tail end of a shear line is enhancing the showers we are seeing today. We'll see rains continue for the next 36 hours and could bring anywhere between 50 to 100mm in some spots.We'll have more updates about the rain in the Philippines below.

As for Eastern Asia, a weak low pressure system is moving out of Japan after bringing some scattered rain showers across Southeastern Honshu. The western half of the island continues to see sea-effect snow with temperatures hovering near freezing. Still cold, but dry, for China and the Koreas although we will see temperatures rebound by early next week. We are looking at highs of 3 to 6C by Monday although another push of cold air will come by Wednesday.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!


Much of the region will be unaffected by the rains to the south, for the time being. However, some light rains might spill into southern Bicol Region tonight and into tomorrow. Chances for rain will increase as time goes on with Sunday having 50% for Manila. GFS has been really good this week with regards to the push of the precipitation so decided to use it as the primary model for this forecast. Rains down south will likely start spreading into Southern Luzon beginning Sunday afternoon and will continue into Monday. Based on models, rain will reach as far north as the Cordilleras so we've also put 50% for Baguio City by that time. Temperatures will run normal for tomorrow although as cloud cover increases, temps will probably be limited around the 30-degree mark (colder for higher elevations).


Eastern Visayas is now starting to get light to moderate rains, particularly Leyte-Samar area. Precipitation shield will continue moving westward and will start affecting Central Visayas (Cebu) tonight and into tomorrow. As stated above, rainfall amounts will range between 50 to 100mm. Models continue to show precipitation throughout the forecast period and will most likely be concentrated along the Visayan Peninsula (from Samar all the way into Cebu-Negros area). 3-day total amounts could possibly reach 200mm which could cause numerous landslides and widespread flooding. Unfortunately, there will only be some brief breaks between precipitation and no real dry-weather in the forecast for the next 3 days.


Much of the rain entering the country is primarily affecting Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Southern and western areas won't get much rain, except for a stray thunderstorm that is why we've kept Davao at 40% for the next 2 days. Still, don't be surprised to see some showers over the weekend. Next threat comes on Monday, which will be more widespread in terms of coverage (increased to 50% for Davao by that time). As for Northern Mindanao, we're expecting rainfall amounts to range from 30 to 80mm over the next 24 hours. Temperatures, on the other hand, will range between 23 to around 32C, cooler in places with abundant cloud cover and continuous rainfall.

We'll have another update on February 13, 2012 (Monday). If for some reason, low pressure east of the Philippines shows signs of development, we'll give an update right away but for now, the disturbance is too weak to warrant daily updates.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 021012

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