Thursday, February 16, 2012

Tropical Update

Rain continues to fall across the Philippines today as the LPA moves through Visayas. Another disturbance is spotted near the Marianas while a weak low is bringing scattered showers across Honshu and Shikoku.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The highlight for today's update is the continuous rains across the Philippines. Nearly 300mm have fallen these past 3 days across Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao with places in Leyte and Surigao reporting the highest amounts. Right now, the rain coverage has shrunk a little bit as the low pressure area struggles to develop. Scattered rain showers continue to affect much of the country, however, with light to moderate rains bringing somewhere between 50 to 100mm tonight. We'll have more forecast later for the Philippines in the update but as for the LPA itself, computer models are currently split as to the eventual development for the system. Some are taking it westward into Southern Vietnam as a weak LPA. While some models are hinting at a possible Tropical Depression over the South China Sea early next week. Considering the models showing the second scenario, we are leaning more towards the possibility of this LPA to become a very weak cyclone by next week. As to the future effects to the Philippines, we'll have to iron out the details to forecast with 100% certainty.

Meanwhile, another developing low pressure area was spotted today moving across the Western Pacific. This broad area of convection is currently south of Guam and is moving westward, producing scattered to widespread rains showers in the vicinity. If it stays intact, it could produce another round of wet weather for parts of Visayas and Mindanao by Monday. As for Japan, we have a weak low bringing scattered rain showers across southern part of Honshu. The precipitation will be mainly rain in the southern half although snow showers are making their way into the Kanto Plains and as far east as the Tokyo Area. Temperatures have fallen these past 12 hours with most areas barely above freezing. Light snow will continue for the mentioned areas although no large accumulations expected.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!


Light to moderate rain showers will continue throughout tonight and into tomorrow. Amounts should range between 50 to 80mm with isolated 100mm amounts possible. Rains should break up by Saturday there decreased the chances to 40% for both Baguio and Manila this weekend. Still, expect some showers across the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Temperatures have mostly been in the mid to upper 20's these past 3 days and will likely continue to be cooler than average. Temps should start climbing into the 30s by next week.


Widespread rains in the region should slowly abate Saturday. There will be scattered to widespread rains for tomorrow though as the LPA continues to move westward. Expect improving weather this weekend with Sunday being the best of the two. Next chance of precipitation is forecast to arrive by Sunday evening so kept the chances to 30% for Cebu.


Northern Mindanao will continue getting scattered showers while the southern half should remain mostly cloudy skies with small chance of rain. The weekend looks fine although some showers may try to work their way in from the east that's why we've kept 40% for Davao for those days. The precip out east won't likely make much impact for Western and Southern Mindanao although northern and eastern areas especially Surigao may get some light to moderate rains later Sunday.

We'll have more updates by Sunday (February 19, 2012). If the LPA develops over the South China Sea, we'll put out an update right away so keep checking the site for the latest.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 021612

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