Saturday, February 4, 2012

Tropical Update

Just as forecast 3 days ago, we're now looking at a batch of light to moderate rains moving into Eastern Mindanao. Much of the precipitation is still offshore although we expect rains to move in later tonight. Elsewhere, we're seeing quieter pattern, across Eastern Asia, although cold air remains in place. South China Sea side is quiet while a surge of energy is currently moving westwards across the Pacific and into Western Micronesia.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We are watching two weak frontal systems, one in Japan, and the other is developing in China. The front south of Japan will continue moving away to the northeast. Behind this system will be fresh northwesterly winds which will reduce temperatures across the region once again. The NW winds will also enhance more snow showers on the Sea of Japan side of Honshu. Some areas here are already reporting 3 to 4 meters of snow depth and as much as 1 meter could still accumulate over the next few days. The Korean Peninsula will remain dry but still cold. For Eastern China, expect some light rain showers over the next 24 hours as a weak frontal system is developing in this region. The northern half of the country will remain cold as well.


Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL


Region will be quiet although some light rains could developing across Northern and Eastern Luzon. Some showers also possible across Southern Luzon as moisture spills in from the south. The weekend looks mostly dry though, with slight chances for thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. As a front moves through on Monday and Tuesday, light rain could develop across northern half. Rain also possible by early next week across the Bicol Region as a vigorous batch of showers moves in from the east. Temperatures will warm back up, particularly in the northern sections.


Some mid to high level clouds moving from the east and south although not expecting rains for tonight. Tomorrow might see some light rain showers, particularly along the eastern sections. Showers will linger until Monday. A potentially heavier batch of showers will move in by Tuesday, affecting Eastern Visayas and spreading westwards thereafter.


Batch of showers moving into Eastern Mindanao, around the Davao Regions. There could be as much as 50mm of rain over the next 24 hours so landslides and flashfloods are possible across these areas. Drier pattern sets up by Monday although rain showers could return by later Tuesday.

Next update by February 7, Tuesday.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 020412

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