Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Tropical Update

Quiet weather dominates much of Asia today with just a few showers near the tropics. The frontal system that brought various types of precipitation to China is now moving across the Pacific. Rainfall amounts of around 50 to 80mm were recorded in Eastern China as well as the Ryukyu Islands in Japan. A few centimeters of snow were also recorded in some parts of China as reported by the CMA. Meanwhile in the tropics, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is producing scattered showers across Western Micronesia. We are also seeing some isolated thunderstorms across the Philippines.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As the cold front digs southward, we expect a surge of NE winds to East and Southeast Asia which could produce scattered rain showers as well as bring cooler temperatures. For now, we are seeing quieter weather patterns for Indochina, Malay Peninsula, and Borneo Island; although there could still be isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Meanwhile in China, we expect a drier regime for the next 2 days although dense fog is a concern for much of the country. In Japan, snow has lightened up in Northern and Western Honshu. Next chance of precipitation comes this weekend as another low exits China. Temperatures will rebound by the latter part of this week--southern parts of Honshu could see temps into the mid teens. Korean peninsula will remain cold with temps ranging from -5 to around 3C. Northern Asia will remain cold as well with below zero temps all throughout.


Forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Cold front moved through yesterday bringing some light rains into the region. Still seeing some cloudiness today although the threat of precipitation has now decreased. There could still be some scattered light rain showers as northeast winds increase. No large rain-makers in sight but decided to left slight chance for isolated storms that could occur during the afternoon hours. Models are suggesting rain showers by Thursday/Friday as the easterlies return, setting up a wind-convergence effect. For now, left a 40% for Manila although Southern Luzon could have a higher chance of seeing rains by that time. Temps will range between 24-31C, cooler in Baguio.


Rain has also abated along the eastern portions of the province. Right now, only spotty thunderstorms can be observed on satellite. These showers are not expected to linger although depending on duration, these could drop significant amount of rainfall in a small amount of time. As mentioned above, not expecting large precipitation event within the next 3 days although showers could affect the region starting Thursday. We'll have to watch that cluster of showers near Koror as that could possible affect Eastern Visayas in two days' time. Less cloud coverage is allowing temperatures to climb into the low 30's in some areas. Expecting similar scenario for tomorrow.


A volatile weather pattern as we head into the week. Main concern is the batch of showers near Koror. We've seen these types of convection before and more often than not, they die down during the night and become widely scattered as they reach Mindanao. Therefore, we've decided to keep chances at around 40% for the next 2 days. A higher chance for Friday as models bring in a strong wave of convection off the Pacific. Mediocre initialization among models today, however, so confidence in forecast is somewhat low. We'll have to see how this pans out over the next 36 hours.

Next update on January 20, Friday. If necessary, we may have to issue a quick update tomorrow or on Thursday regarding the showers near Mindanao. Stay safe!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 011712

No comments:

Post a Comment