Tropical Update

Not a whole of weather going on across Asia with just a few scattered precipitation observed in some locations. Rain in Southern Japan, wintry weather for China and Korea, monsoonal rains for SE Asia, and a Tropical Wave near Palau are what we are watching right now.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Starting with Japan, light rains have, for the most part, ended across much of Southern Honshu today. Most areas are reporting rainfall amounts of around 50mm with some isolated amounts of nearly 100mm. As the LOW moves away, we expect a slight dip in temperatures with Tokyo only getting into the upper single digits for tomorrow. Temps should rebound by Sunday though. The Korean Peninsula, on the other hand, will have partly cloudy skies with chances for scattered snow showers as the wind flow is enhancing sea-effect snow; not expecting a whole lot though. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance is also moving across Central China bringing a wide range of precipitation. Mostly rain mixed with sleet although higher elevations could see a period of light to moderate snow. Please check with the CMA for more info. As for SE Asia, we are only seeing some scattered showers brought by the monsoon. Rainfall amounts range between 50-80mm in Indochina will some areas in the Malay Peninsula are reporting rains of nearly 100mm. These conditions will continue for the next few days, but as mentioned, precipitation will be scattered. As for the W Pacific, a vigorous wave is moving near Palau with some strong thunderstorms. It is moving west and could affect the Southern Philippines within the next 24 to 48 hours. We'll discuss more about this system in the paragraph below.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast graphic is NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Mainly clear skies for Central and Northern Luzon. This is allowing temperatures to climb into the 30's. NE winds are moderating it a little with cool breeze, especially along the coastal areas of Northern and Eastern Luzon. A weak shear line is producing some scattered, albeit weak, showers across Southeastern Luzon. Not expecting precipitation to reach into Central Luzon (Manila), although chances for an isolated thunderstorm remains. Temperatures will range between 24-31C; cooler in Baguio and higher elevations.

Visayas

Fair conditions also observed across the region. The shear line is modeled well by the computer guidance so still expect scattered rains for Eastern Visayas for the next 2 days. Enhanced easterlies are also forecast by next week so we'll have to see how it affects the area. For now, left a small chance for t-storms across Central Visayas. Temps will also be around 24-31C although an increase in cloud cover tomorrow might hold temps in the upper 20s.

Mindanao

As mentioned, we are watching a pretty strong inverted trough (Tropical Wave) that is moving westward near Palau. Koror Airport is reporting ENE winds of around 15kph with gusts of up to 30kph. Chances for development are extremely slim although the Canadian Model remains consistent in that it shows a weak Tropical Depression by early next week. Not buying this solution as of right now although we'll continue watching the system for any development. Right now, this batch of showers are forecast to move into Eastern Mindanao later tomorrow. Only put 40% chance of rain in Davao for tomorrow although if models are correct, expect rains to overspread the area by tomorrow and into Monday. Fair skies are allowing temperatures to spike into the middle 30s today. We expect lower 30s for tomorrow and then a slight cooling trend as showers arrive.

We'll have our next update on January 23, 2012 (Monday). If necessary, we might put out a quick update if that wave near Palau develops into an invest.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 012012