Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Tropical Update

A drier weather pattern looks to be setting up for much of the Philippines this week with most showers confined to the eastern parts of the country. A developing frontal system south of Japan is bringing snow showers across Western Honshu and much of Hokkaido. A batch of showers also continues to persist in the South China Sea affecting Borneo and the Malay Peninsula producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

IR Image from NRLMRY

A shearline associated with the cold front across the Pacific is bringing widespread rains across Eastern Visayas. Nearly 200mm of rain has already fallen for parts of Samar and Leyte and as much as 100mm for Southern Bicol. We expect more showers today and into tomorrow although coverage and rain amounts should be lesser. Dry weather for the rest of the Philippines though as high pressure dominates the north as well as the southern portions.

A developing LOW near Japan is enhancing sea-effect snow for Western Honshu and Hokkaido. We expect another 30 to even 50cm of snow for higher elevations for the next 24 to 36 hours. Behind this front will be cold temperatures for NE Asia. Temperatures will continue to linger around the freezing mark for much of the Korean Peninsula. Negative teens for NE China and Russia. The surge of the NE Monsoon will also bring windy conditions for E China and into Taiwan.

Across the South China Sea, we continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms for Malay Peninsula and Borneo Island. Recent rainfall reports range from 50 to 80mm. The bulk of the showers is offshore and we are not expecting any widespread rains for the next 2 days. Showers will mostly be isolated and won't last long.


Here is our forecast, NOT OFFICIAL!

NE Monsoon affecting much of the region bringing slightly cooler temps as well as windy conditions. Cloud cover keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 20s today and will last into Friday. A developing front across Japan will increase cloudiness but since the system is quickly moving to the northeast, we expect clearing weather for the next 3 days. Still, we won't rule out a shower or two for Northeastern Luzon. Also expecting fair weather for Manila and the rest of Central/Southern Luzon. Be on the lookout, though, for isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. The shearline affecting Eastern Visayas will also bring scattered showers for Southen Bicol Region. Amounts should be light (around 50mm).


As mentioned before, a weak shearline continues to exist as the cold front sags south into the Marianas. Latest satellite data show the showers have slightly weaken and is mainly situated offshore. We are still expecting showers for Eastern Visayas for the next 24 to 36 hours. As the frontal boundary weakens, models are bringing these showers westward by Friday. Left 40% chance of rain for Cebu for the possibility of a stray shower for the next 2 days. Weak ITCZ expected to move westwards and affect the region by Saturday. Temps will remain normal with some low 30s during the day.


Generally quiet across the region and should stay that way for the next 2 days with some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Next batch of precipitation is expected by Friday night into Saturday as the trade-wind convergence line moves westward. For now, left a 40% chance for Davao by Saturday but that could very well change depending on the model runs. Dry weather will promote warm temperatures throughout this week with as high as 33C in some spots during the day.

Next update by January 14, 2012 (Saturday), STAY SAFE!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 011112

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