Sunday, January 8, 2012

Tropical Update

Wet conditions persist for much of the Philippines this weekend. Precipitation is also affecting some parts of SE Asia, particularly Malaysia. Rest of East Asia is quiet and cold.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Starting with the Philippines, we have two areas of concern--convergence zone and a weak tropical disturbance. The first one is bringing widespread light rains across Luzon and parts of Visayas. This is caused by warm easterly winds converging with cool winds from the northeast which then increases upper level divergence, causing rains. So far, reports range from 50 to 100mm of rainfall this past 24 hours. Based on the latest data, we expect rains to continue for much of Central Luzon, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas for another 24 to 36 hours. This batch of showers are slowly moving westward and could eventually affect Palawan and even some parts of Northern Luzon. Mindanao, on the other hand, is being affected by a weak Tropical Disturbance. A low-level circulation was spotted approximately 700km southeast from Davao City. This LPA is too weak and has no model support for cyclone development. Nevertheless, this disturbance will still bring light to moderate rains for parts of Mindanao today. The disturbance is also moving westward and computer models suggest it could affect Zamboanga Peninsula and Borneo Island tomorrow. Expect rainfall amounts to range from 100-200mm. High amounts of rainfall in mountain ranges could result into flashfloods and landslides, please coordinate with the local officials!

The line of showers affecting Luzon extends west into the South China Sea and is also bringing showers into Borneo Island. Places in Brunei and East Malaysia have recorded as much as 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours. As mentioned earlier, this is moving westward and could affect Southern Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula within the next 24 to 36 hours. Rainfall amounts will generally be light.

Rest of East Asia will be dry and cold. Snow in Northern Japan is winding down today and that region should expect snow-free conditions for at least another day. Computer models are showing another storm to develop midweek which could bring back the chance of snow for Northern Honshu and Hokkaido. Scattered showers will affect Eastern China and Northern Taiwan for the next day or so although rainfall amounts will be light. Average temperatures expected although a slight cooldown is forecast for Wednesday across NE Asia.


Here is our 3-day forecast for selected cities in the Philippines. NOT OFFICIAL


Rains will continue for parts of Central and Southern Luzon (Bicol Region). Temperatures will remain somewhat below average due to the continuous precipitation. Could be a wet procession for the Black Nazarene so prepare accordingly if attending. Rain should affect Northern Luzon tomorrow although expect light amounts. Clearing weather by Tuesday except for Southern Luzon. Southern Palawan will have rains Monday and Tuesday due to the approaching disturbance.


Wet conditions likely for Eastern Visayas. Rainfall amounts 100-150mm. Threat of precip also increases for Central and Western Visayas tomorrow. Rain abating by Tuesday into Wednesday, still expect a shower or a thunderstorm. Somewhat cool Monday with temps in the upper 20's but should rebound by Wednesday.


Wet conditions as well for Eastern Mindanao due to the convergence and the Tropical Disturbance. Rainfall amounts here could be 100 to 200mm. High risk of landslides in mountainous areas. As the showers move west, expect rains to overspread into Central and Western Mindanao by Monday night. Rainfall expected to last for another 2 days. Average temperatures expected.

Another Update by January 11, stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010812


  1. Hi., Sir I just suggest you that as of 6-8 am Cebu, Leyte and Samar experience heavy rainshowers

    1. Thank you for sharing your observations! It helps us with the verification of our forecasts as we try and improve them as time goes on.