Thursday, January 5, 2012

Tropical Update

A somewhat busy day today as we continue to monitor the weather conditions across the Western Pacific. Here is our IR image analysis showing the locations of systems that we will discuss.

IR Image from NRLMRY

First off, we continue to see some sea-effect snow for much of Northern Honshu as well as Hokkaido. Westerly winds blowing across the Sea of Japan are ushering trails of snow showers which could bring as many as 50cm (around 20 inches) of snow for the next 1 to 2 days with the biggest amounts in the higher elevations. We will continue to see this active pattern in Northern Japan for the next few days. Mainly quiet though for the rest of Northeast Asia. We could see a cold spell sometime next week as computer models hint a cool down that will affect the Russian Far East, NE China, Northern Japan, and Korea. Some areas could see highs only in the negative single digits!

As for lower latitudes, we have some rain and snow in Southern China and rain across Northern Taiwan. We don't expect significant accumulations though and much of the precipitation should begin to subside late tomorrow.

Converging northeasterly and easterly winds are spawning widespread rains across the Southern Philippines and Borneo Island. Some places in Mindanao and Visayas have received well over 150mm in the past two days. As much as 200mm have also fallen in some parts of Malaysia and Indonesia (Borneo). We'll continue to see rainfall in these areas for at least another two days. By then, there could be as high as 250mm of total accumulations so please be wary of flashfloods and landslides!

Specifically for the Philippines, we are forecasting quiet day tomorrow for Luzon. Chance of rain increases by Saturday for Northern Luzon as a weak shortwave passes across Eastern China while a passing shower or two is forecast for Central Luzon. Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to affect Central Visayas, including Cebu. Light to moderate rain will continue for Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas. Showers caused by the convergence should lift north by Saturday leaving Northern and Eastern Mindanao with dry conditions. Another batch of showers could approach from the east and could start affecting Mindanao and Visayas by as early as Saturday evening and into Sunday. Average temperatures expected for much of forecast timeline.

3-day Forecast. NOT OFFICIAL

Another update by January 8.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010512

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