Monday, January 2, 2012

Tropical Update

Happy New Year everyone! Hope all of your limbs and fingers are still intact. :)

IR Image from NRLMRY

We welcome 2012 with generally quiet weather for much of the forecast area this week. As usual, we are watching several areas of interest in the Western Pacific. A low pressure area was spotted near Palau, approximately 500km southeast of Davao City. Right now, this disturbance is largely disorganized although an ASCAT pass suggests a weak low level circulation center. Recent reports out of Koror also indicate southeasterly winds of around 20kph with scattered rain showers.

While the chance for development is quite low, 90W threatens to bring widespread rains once it moves towards Mindanao. Computer models bring this batch of showers to Mindanao by as early as Wednesday although we won't rule out a shower or two in Eastern Mindanao as early as tomorrow. We will continue to watch this LPA for further development.

The rest of Mindanao and Visayas will have generally clear weather with slight chances for thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Wind convergence in Visayas could bring light to moderate rain showers. Luzon, on the other hand, will have partly to mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions due to the NE Monsoon. Temperatures will remain around normal for much of the forecast although we expect a slight cooling by Thursday as the cold front sags further south. Decided to increase chance of precipitation for much of the country by Wednesday and Thursday as the convergence is enhanced, as well as the arrival of the disturbance from the east.

Posted below is our 3-day forecast for selected cities. NOT OFFICIAL

We'll have another update on January 5th, stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010212

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