Friday, December 16, 2011

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #7 [LANDFALL]

Tropical Storm Washi (Bagyong Sendong) is now moving into Sulu Sea after affecting Mindanao last night. The storm center was last located approximately 30km north northwest of Dipolog City or about 50km south southwest of Dumaguete City. Maximum sustained winds are still around 85kph gusting to 105kph. Washi is moving westward at 25kph.
As of 5am today, PAGASA still have Signal #2 warnings for Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga Provinces. Signal #1 for Palawan, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, North Cotabato, and Maguindanao. 

A recent microwave image shows an inner core that is intact and very organized--almost showing an eye, hence we kept the intensity at 85kph.

Image from NRLMRY

Western Mindanao (Zamboanga Peninsula) and Central Visayas (Particularly Negros Island) will continue experiencing stormy conditions with heavy rain and strong winds. Latest rainfall reports out of Mindanao range from 100 to 150mm with some locations like Cagayan de Oro reporting nearly 200mm of rainfall. We expect another 100mm to fall today across these parts. However, weather should begin to improve for most of Mindanao beginning this afternoon. TS Washi will then move into Palawan later this evening as a strong Tropical Storm. The warm waters of the Sulu Sea, coupled with weak wind shear, will allow Washi to regroup and perhaps intensify a little bit more before affecting the Province.

TS Washi is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday morning. After that, computer models begin to diverge as to the future track of the storm. For now, we forecast Washi to move westward into Southern Vietnam, affecting the country as early as Tuesday.

We'll have another update later this afternoon. Stay safe!
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 121711

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