Friday, December 16, 2011

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #6 [LANDFALL]

Tropical Storm Washi (Bagyong Sendong) is now making landfall along the Eastern Mindanao Coast, particularly along the Surigao del Sur/Davao Oriental Provinces. It has strengthened a little bit just before moving into land with maximum sustained winds now around 85kph with gusts of up to 105kph. TS Washi has also slowed down and is currently moving westward at a speed of 20kph. The center of the storm was last located approximately 140km northeast of Davao City.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #2 for the provinces of Surigao Del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao Del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan Provinces, Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, and Camiguin. Signal #1 for Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, North Cotabato, Samal Island, Maguindanao, Davao del Sur, Zamboanga Provinces, Negros, Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Siquijor, and Palawan.

IR Image from NRLMRY showing the storm beginning to move into Mindanao. Bright colors mean stronger convective activity. The yellow circle represents the center of the storm (CDO) and is a sign of intense convection which could bring very heavy rainfall along with strong winds.

These areas will receive heavy rainfall along with strong winds overnight. We expect rainfall amounts of 150 to 250mm with isolated amounts of up to 350mm along the mountainous areas of Mindanao. The threat of landslides and flashfloods are very high, please coordinate with the authorities for evacuations! Stormy conditions will persist for at least 10 hours; weather should begin clearing out tomorrow for most areas in Mindanao.

Outer rain bands will also affect Cenral Visayas particularly Negros, Cebu, Bohol, and Panay. These rain showers may bring up to 150mm over night. Scattered thunderstorms, enhanced by Washi, may also affect Southern Luzon.

TS Washi will continue moving westward passing near Cagayan de Oro and Iligan City tonight. It will exit into Sulu Sea tomorrow morning as a weak storm. The interaction with the topography of Mindanao will be crucial for the future intensity of Washi. It may or may not have a chance of redeveloping over the water. Palawan will also be affected starting Saturday afternoon and into the night as Washi moves in from the east. The storm is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday afternoon. Computer models then take Washi along the South China Sea and into Southern Vietnam by Tuesday next week.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Invest 96W south of Guam has dissipated and no longer has a chance for development.

We'll have more updates tomorrow morning. Stay safe.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 121611

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