Saturday, December 17, 2011

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #8

Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) is now reorganizing over the Sulu Sea and is moving towards the province of Palawan. This after moving through Mindanao last night and leaving more than 150 people dead. Most casualties were reported near Iligan due to flash floods that hit overnight, catching many residents off guard. It is feared that that number could rise as authorities try to find more people from affected communities. 100 to 200mm of rain has also fallen across parts of Mindanao and Visayas. Even Central and Southern Luzon are reporting light rains due to converging winds brought by Washi and the NE Monsoon.

This surge in the monsoon will bring strong northeasterly winds across Northern Luzon together with light rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.

Washi was last located approximately 240km east southeast of Puerto Princesa City or about 290km northwest of Zamboanga City. Maximum sustained winds have weakened a little bit to 85kph gusting to 105kph. Our wind estimates are lower than that of JTWC based on latest satellite data. TS Washi is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #2 Palawan and Signal #1 for Cuyo, Coron Group of Islan, and Negros Island. All other warnings elsewhere have now been dropped.

Latest IR Image shows a new hot tower (yellow colored) erupting near the center which could suggest that Washi is trying to reorganize over the open waters. Wind shear have increased in the past 12 hours which left the center partially exposed this afternoon; it has since improved as new convection tries to fire off.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Washi will be moving in to Palawan tonight, particularly near Puerto Princesa City. We are looking at a landfall of time of around 9pm tonight. Expect heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surges, particularly along the northern half of the island. Rainfall amounts could vary from 100 to 200mm. Washi is then forecast to exit into the South China Sea tomorrow morning.

Long term forecast takes Washi into the Eastern South China by early next week. JTWC is showing a sharper recurve towards Malay Peninsula. Our forecast is somewhat north of that and we are expecting Washi to make skirt the Southern Coast of Vietnam, near Ho Chi Minh very early Tuesday. It will then weaken due to land interaction, lower sea temperatures, and increasing wind shear. Washi could approach the Malay Peninsula by Wednesday as a weak Tropical Depression.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow morning, stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 121711

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