Saturday, December 10, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 94W continues to slowly consolidate over the South China Sea. It is located approximately 400km northwest of Palawan. Its low level circulation center has become better defined today and winds have increased somewhat based on an ASCAT pass. Convective activity associated with this LPA continues to blossom as well. Because of the latest developments, JTWC is now putting out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 94W signifying a "HIGH" chance of cyclone development within the next 24 hours.

As far as computer models go, 94W is not forecast to become a strong cyclone mainly due to the strong wind shear in the area. Furthermore, we are also expecting 94W to slowly move away from the Philippines in the next 24 to 36 hours. Nevertheless, showers from 94W are still possible especially along Palawan.

Meanwhile, converging winds east of the Philippines is bring scattered rain showers across Luzon and Visayas. Another 100 to 200mm of rain fell in 24 hours triggering isolated landslides and minor flooding. This batch of showers should slowly lift north in the coming days.
Issued (09 UTC) 121011

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