Sunday, December 11, 2011

Tropical Update

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center yesterday was allowed to expire this morning, hence Invest 94W was never upgraded into a depression by the said agency. We should note, however, that the JMA has still is classifying 94W as a Tropical Depression although not releasing special TC Warnings.

As predicted, the strong wind shear in the South China Sea is taking its toll on 94W's development. Its center (located approximately 400km west of Southern Palawan, around Spratly Islands) has become fully exposed today with weaker winds than yesterday as seen from an ASCAT pass. However, the most recent satellite images shows a new band of deep convection displaced southwest of the center which might suggest improvements with regard to 94W's development. With that said, latest models are still not showing development for 94W. Almost all of the computer models keep it as a weak tropical wave that could bring rain showers once it gets into Southern Vietnam. Wind shear across South China Sea remains very strong and that is significantly inhibiting 94W's chances of becoming a cyclone. Still, we'll continue updating you with this system.

As for the Philippines, rain showers continue to fall across Central and Northern Luzon. Rainfall amounts these past 24 hours is somewhat lower with most stations reporting "only" 50 to 100mm. As we have forecast yesterday, this batch of precipitation is slowly moving north and northeast (also weakening in the process). As the front in East Asia lifts out this Tuesday, we expect drier conditions together with warmer temperatures. Another front is forecast to dive into Korea/NE China by late next week which could bring another round of cool weather across the Philippines.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 121111

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