Friday, December 9, 2011

Tropical Update

A Low Pressure Area has been spotted in the South China Sea, approximately 360km west of Palawan. An ASCAT pass earlier today reveals a disorganized low level circulation center with winds of 15 to 30kph. Some convection is also associated with the said LPA and is bringing scattered showers across Western Visayas and Luzon. Not much is expected with this disturbance due to the strong wind shear in the South China Sea. However, models do keep this batch of showers just west of the Philippines for at least 24 more hours before slowly moving westward.

IR image from NOAA

The bigger weather maker for the Philippines today is the ITCZ and the Northeasterlies (Amihan) which are affecting much of Luzon and Visayas. Both systems have already brought 100 to 200mm of rain this past two days across parts of Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, and Visayas Islands. Mindanao (particularly western sections) will also be experiencing scattered to widespread showers for the next 2 days. Models show the precipitation to slowly die beginning Sunday.

Apart from the rains, the northeasterly winds from East Asia is also bringing in colder air towards the country. We expect to continue seeing low temperatures in the middle 20's (celsius) in urban areas and possibly some teens in mountainous areas (eg Baguio). A slight warmup is projected to occur by the middle of next week.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 120911

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