Monday, October 3, 2011

Tropical Storm Nalgae Update #12 w/ Video

Note: You'll find the Video Update at the end of this post.

Tropical Storm Nalgae has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility last night. It is now approaching the island of Hainan. It was last located approximately 400km east southeast from the Chinese Province or about 520km south southwest of Hong Kong. It is moving westward at 15kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100kph gusting to 130kph.

Latest VIS Image shows the partially exposed circulation with the main convective activity being displaced to the west due to the stronger wind shear over South China Sea. Nalgae still has a fairly decent organization with strong convective activity, despite the displacement.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The radar image below from CMA shows the outer rain bands from Nalgae now moving into the province of Hainan. Majority of the heavy rains are still offshore although light precipitation is now affecting much of the island. We expect around 50mm tonight which will then rise significantly tomorrow as Nalgae brushes the southern part. As much as 300mm of rain could fall in Hainan for the next 24 hours.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

We have shifted our forecast track just a little bit, following the consensus among weather agencies and computer models. Nalgae should continue moving westward at a speed of around 15 to 20kph. It could brush the southern half of Hainan by Tuesday afternoon, passing through the city of Sanya by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. It should then continue to move into the southern part of Gulf of Tonkin, weakening along the way due to increasing wind shear. Nalgae is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam by Thursday afternoon, just north of Hue or about 400km south of Hanoi. After making landfall, Nalgae should then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression and could dissipate over Laos/Thailand area by as early as Friday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

No other tropical systems exist in the Western Pacific although computer models are really keen on developing a weak system by this weekend. There is strong wind shear over the Philippine Sea at the moment so this cyclone development could take a while. Nevertheless, that ITCZ could definitely spawn a weak system anytime and that is why we are here to give you the latest updates. For now though, enjoy the quieter weather there in the Philippines!

Video Update

We'll have another update by tomorrow afternoon.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100311

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